El Nino is expected to strengthen to exceptional levels in the coming months and persist into early 2027, the World Meteorological Organization, WMO, has warned, raising concerns over worsening droughts, floods and extreme heat across the world.
The United Nations weather agency said on Thursday that there is a nearly 100 percent probability that El Nino will continue through February. The WMO described this as the strongest level of certainty it has ever expressed in an El Nino/La Nina update.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern that causes surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean to become unusually warm. The phenomenon can disrupt wind, pressure and rainfall patterns far beyond the Pacific region.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the current trajectory could produce an El Nino event unlike anything recorded during the organisation’s four decades of monitoring.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began,” Saulo told reporters in Geneva, Switzerland, warning that the event could go “off the charts” used by forecasters.
The WMO expects El Nino to reach its peak toward the end of 2026, although its effects on global temperatures and weather patterns could continue well into 2027.
Because ocean heat is released gradually into the atmosphere, a strong El Nino can contribute to higher global temperatures even after the phenomenon begins to weaken.
The powerful El Nino of 2023-24 contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record. Saulo said another strong event could further increase global temperatures and potentially contribute to a new temperature record.
“El Nino is firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months,” the WMO said, warning of significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns and increased risks of floods, drought and extreme heat.
The weather agency classifies its events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong, with the current forecast pointing towards the highest category.
Although El Nino itself is a natural phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, scientists expect its effects to be amplified by a planet already warming because of greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels.
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UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the combination of rising global temperatures and an exceptionally strong El Nino could increase the threat posed by extreme weather.
“This exceptional El Nino … has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Saulo said.
She added that authorities are already dealing with disruptions from droughts and floods and should prepare for conditions to worsen as El Nino strengthens.
Saulo urged disaster management authorities and climate-sensitive sectors, including agriculture, healthcare, energy and water, to prepare for the potential consequences.
She stressed that there is “no time to lose” in strengthening preparedness and protecting vulnerable communities.
El Nino generally occurs every two to seven years and can last between nine months and a year. Conditions alternate between El Nino and its opposite phase, La Nina, with periods of neutral conditions in between.
The WMO said exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific are expected to drive further intensification in the coming months.
El Nino can influence weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific. Major events are often associated with drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disruptions to the Indian monsoon and significant changes in rainfall across tropical regions.
For September to November, WMO forecasts point to an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas. Rainfall patterns are also expected to show a pronounced response to the strong Pacific El Nino.
The index used to measure sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has strengthened significantly.
Average temperatures were about 1.5°C above normal between May and July, while weekly readings between late July and mid-August ranged from 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average.
In some parts of the Pacific, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August, providing further evidence of the continued strengthening of the phenomenon.
The WMO’s latest warning underscores the need for governments, communities and climate-sensitive industries to strengthen preparations as it moves towards its expected peak.
Al Jazeera
