When UN Trade and Development, UNCTAD, cut its 2026 global growth projection to 2.6 per cent on Friday, it described a world economy losing steam, with poorer nations falling further behind.
Nigeria’s latest figures, however, tell a more complicated story.
In its Trade and Development Report 2026, released in Geneva, UNCTAD projected that developing economies would grow by four per cent this year, down from 4.7 per cent in 2025, as geopolitical tensions, higher energy costs and financial volatility take their toll.
Against that backdrop, Nigeria appears to be moving in the opposite direction.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the economy grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.89 per cent in the first quarter. It was the strongest quarterly performance since the third quarter of 2024.
Annual growth has also risen steadily, from 3.04 per cent in 2023 to 3.38 per cent in 2024 and 3.87 per cent in 2025.
International institutions broadly expect the momentum to hold.
The World Bank, in its October Africa update, raised Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.3 per cent and projected 4.4 per cent annually in 2027 and 2028. It cited improving macroeconomic stability and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its July World Economic Outlook Update, projected 4.1 per cent growth for Nigeria in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027. Its forecast for emerging market and developing economies was 3.8 per cent.
The African Development Bank (AfDB) projected 4.1 per cent for 2026 but expects growth to slow to 3.7 per cent in 2027.
A closer look, however, suggests that several of UNCTAD’s warnings apply squarely to Nigeria.
Much of the second-quarter acceleration came from oil. The NBS said the oil sector grew by 7.31 per cent as crude production rose to 1.72 million barrels per day, from 1.55 million barrels in the first quarter.
The rise coincided with the Middle East conflict, which UNCTAD said pushed Brent crude from 70 dollars to over 110 dollars per barrel.
Higher prices have boosted Nigeria’s export earnings, but they have also raised fuel costs for households.
The IMF noted that while Nigeria benefited from favourable terms of trade, “higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity.”
The World Bank similarly said Nigeria’s growth remained insufficient to generate enough productive jobs and materially reduce poverty. It added that elevated fuel prices weigh disproportionately on low-income households.
Headline inflation, though lower than in previous years, stood at 15.39 per cent in August, according to the NBS.
The structure of growth also raises questions.
UNCTAD warned that developing countries were finding it harder to move into higher-value manufacturing. In Nigeria, industry grew by 3.96 per cent in the second quarter, down from 7.46 per cent a year earlier. Services accounted for about 57 per cent of real GDP.
Financing pressures are also mounting. UNCTAD projected that official development assistance would fall by almost seven per cent in 2026, its third consecutive annual decline. It added that capital-flow volatility had doubled since the Middle East conflict began.
The AfDB said Nigeria’s fiscal deficit widened to 2.4 per cent of GDP in 2025, despite improved revenue, reflecting rising debt service costs.
There is also a gap between current performance and official ambition. The Federal Government has set a target of seven per cent annual growth by 2027, yet no major forecaster projects more than 4.4 per cent.
UNCTAD’s prescriptions may therefore be as relevant to Nigeria as to weaker economies. They include investment in productive sectors, regional integration, and linking foreign investment to local suppliers. The report cited the African Continental Free Trade Area and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System as tools to expand markets and cut trade costs.
For Nigeria, the challenge is to turn an oil-assisted rebound into broad-based growth that creates jobs and eases the cost of living.
Until then, outpacing a slowing world may offer limited comfort to millions of households.
Crediblenewsng.com
