With report from Nosmot Gbadamosi/ Africa Brief
The seven-day cease-fire between the Sudanese Army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, mediated by the United States and Saudi Arabia, went into effect on Monday.
Although fighting has continued throughout earlier ceasefires, there is some optimism that this one will last because it is the first to be publicly agreed to after talks in Jeddah.
The fighting generals have been asked to uphold the accord by the United Nations.
The initial seven-day cease-fire in Sudan intended to allow for the delivery of humanitarian aid was broken briefly after reports of sporadic gunfire and fighter jets flying above homes.
Previous attempts to halt the fighting between the army and rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces had been ignored within hours of deals being signed. But many had high hopes for this latest truce—which came into effect Monday evening after formal negotiations and a signed agreement brokered by the United States and Saudi Arabia.
Fighting has pitted Sudan’s army chief, Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against his former deputy and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, better known as Hemeti. In a decree issued Friday, Burhan formally sacked Hemeti and replaced him with former rebel leader and Sovereign Council member Malik Agar.
The war between Burhan and Hemeti has brought devastation to Khartoum, with much of the city’s critical infrastructure bombed out. Both armies are embedded in camps located in densely populated residential districts. Stocks of food and medicine are rapidly dwindling, with reports of mass looting at banks, warehouses, and civilian homes. There are also accounts of rape being committed by Hemeti’s militias.
The conflict has spilled over into the volatile Darfur region, where there have been many reports of sexual violence. More than a million people have fled their homes, and over 700 people have been killed as of Monday, according to the World Health Organization. Amid ongoing airstrikes, many more are hunkered down inside homes with dwindling access to water and electricity. On Tuesday, Washington announced $245 million in humanitarian aid to Sudan and its neighbors.
Even before fresh fighting erupted, Sudan was one of the world’s largest refugee host countries, with the majority coming from South Sudan and Eritrea. There is potential for neighboring militias to get involved in the conflict. Amhara armed groups in Ethiopia could try and reclaim contested land lost in a border dispute with Sudan that resurfaced during Ethiopia’s civil war. In March, Hemeti held a meeting on Sudan’s bilateral relations with Eritrea’s autocratic leader, Isaias Afwerki, whose soldiers have yet to fully withdraw from the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia. Afwerki has sought to increase his influence in eastern Sudan by positioning himself as a mediator among tribal leaders.
Meanwhile, Egypt has backed Burhan’s federal army but has so far not been keen to get involved. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi told Japanese newspaper Asahi Shimbun that Cairo would provide support for peace dialogue, but his country would not “intervene in the crisis in a way that fuels conflict and spills more blood.”
U.S. President Joe Biden has signed an executive order authorizing the government to sanction Sudanese individuals and entities involved in the conflict, and perhaps including Hemeti and Burhan among those targeted—but security experts believe that without buy-in from Gulf states and regional actors, this would prove to be a largely ineffective tool, as Arab states are the primary financial patrons of both generals. So far there has been no major intervention from global powers and a free for all could easily be created along Sudan’s borders.
More than five weeks of war have pitted the army, led by Sudan’s de facto leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces of his former deputy Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.
An estimated 1,000 people were killed in the fighting, and over a million Sudanese abandoned their homes, including 250,000 who fled the nation.
According to the United Nations, more than half of the population, or 25 million people, are currently in need of humanitarian assistance.
