The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, announced on Wednesday that it will maintain its previous forecasts for global oil demand growth in both 2025 and 2026.
According to its May Monthly Oil Market Report released in Vienna, OPEC projects a year-on-year increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in oil consumption for each of the next two years—leaving last month’s estimates unchanged.
OPEC said global oil demand is expected to average 105 million bpd in 2025, driven by multiple economic and sectoral forces. The growth is primarily attributed to increased air travel, rising road transport activity due to post-pandemic recovery, and consistent fuel needs in industrial operations, construction projects, and agricultural production.
The organization also highlighted the role of robust petrochemical output and expanding energy infrastructure in non-OECD countries such as China, India, and several Gulf states.
The report emphasized that emerging economies remain vital to global demand growth, with investments in refineries, logistics, and domestic transport sectors helping to solidify oil’s importance in their development agendas.
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Additionally, rising middle-class populations in Asia and Africa are expected to increase personal vehicle ownership and domestic travel—both of which are oil-intensive activities.
Despite this optimistic demand outlook, OPEC slightly revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 downward by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%, citing recent developments around trade tariffs and geopolitical tensions.
Nevertheless, the 2026 economic growth projection remains steady at 3.1%, suggesting a resilient medium-term outlook.
Analysts believe OPEC’s consistent demand forecast signals confidence in the stability of the global oil market, even amid transitions toward renewable energy.
OPEC also reiterated the importance of balancing market supply and demand to avoid price volatility, warning that underinvestment in fossil fuel infrastructure could trigger future supply shocks.
NAN
