The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is down to its final four contenders, with a supercomputer prediction placing French champions Paris Saint-Germain, PSG, as the top favourites to win the tournament.
As the revamped competition nears its grand finale on Sunday, July 13, at MetLife Stadium, football fans are preparing for a dramatic showdown among elite clubs from Europe and South America.
The artificial intelligence model by Opta has analysed the performance of the four semifinalists and given PSG a commanding 39.33% chance of lifting the trophy.
Despite suffering one defeat to Botafogo earlier in the tournament, the Ligue 1 giants secured knockout victories against Inter Miami and Bayern Munich to book their place in the semifinals.
PSG’s next test is against fellow European powerhouse Real Madrid, with the supercomputer giving the Parisians a 58.84% chance of winning that encounter.
Real Madrid, while historically dominant in international competitions, have shown some inconsistency under new manager Xabi Alonso.
Nonetheless, they’ve overcome tough opponents like Juventus and Borussia Dortmund in the knockout stages. Their overall chances of winning the tournament, however, sit at just 24.67%.
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Surprisingly, Chelsea are considered more likely than Madrid to go all the way. The London club has been handed a 33.27% chance of winning and an 80.51% probability of making the final.
Their journey has included victories over Benfica and Palmeiras, setting up a semifinal clash with Brazil’s Fluminense—a team many initially overlooked.
Fluminense, the only South American club left in the competition, have defied the odds with gritty performances, eliminating Inter and Al Hilal.
Though seen as longshots, they still hold a 19.49% chance of pulling off a major upset. Their disciplined defense could trouble Chelsea, especially after witnessing Flamengo defeat the Blues earlier in the tournament.
Here’s a breakdown of each semifinalist’s current odds:
| Club | Chance to Reach Final | Chance to Win Trophy |
|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain | 58.84% | 39.33% |
| Chelsea | 80.51% | 33.27% |
| Real Madrid | 41.16% | 24.67% |
| Fluminense | 19.49% | 19.49% |
