Takaichi gambles with snap election in Japan

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is going all in for a snap election — a risky but potentially rewarding gambit for a Japanese leader who has been in office for all of three months.

Takaichi informed senior officials from her Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, JIP, of her plan to dissolve the Lower House for a general election, during a meeting Wednesday at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo.

JIP co-leader Hirofumi Yoshimura told reporters following the meeting that Takaichi had conveyed her intention to dissolve the Lower House, ending days of speculation.

“I understand the prime minister will outline further details, including her thinking, next Monday,” Yoshimura said.

LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki, speaking after the same meeting, said Takaichi would hold a news conference on Monday to explain details of the plan.

The snap poll is expected to be held either Feb. 8 or 15, though a Feb. 8 election would minimize the expected impact on passing a ¥122.3 trillion ($769 billion) budget before the start of the fiscal year in April, a key concern of Takaichi’s.

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If the Lower House is dissolved on Jan. 23 and an election held on Feb. 8, it would be the shortest duration between dissolution and a poll — 16 days — since World War II.

Takaichi could formally announce her decision on Monday, after a flurry of diplomacy this week that has seen her hold a summit with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Tuesday, with a planned meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on Friday.

Japan Innovation Party co-leader Hirofumi Yoshimura speaks to reporters at the Prime Minister’s Office in Tokyo on Wednesday.

By dissolving the Lower House and calling for a snap poll, Takaichi hopes to use her unusually high approval ratings as a tailwind to win more seats for the Liberal Democratic Party and recapture the party’s own majority after losing it in a snap election in October 2024.

In a NHK survey released Tuesday, the approval rating for Takaichi’s Cabinet was at 62%, down 2%age points from the previous month. Other polls have put her approval rating as high as 70%.

Asked about the rationale for calling an early election, the LDP’s Suzuki pointed to a need for a strong mandate for the new coalition government, which was formed in October after Komeito left the previous ruling bloc.

“One key point is that the previous election was held under the LDP-Komeito coalition government,” Suzuki said. “The public has yet to pass judgment on the change in coalition partner.”

On Tuesday, Kyodo News reported the LDP had told its prefectural chapters to report their candidates for the next Lower House election by Jan. 19.

Currently, the LDP-led coalition has a slim majority in the Lower House — 233 seats in the 465-seat chamber — after three independent lawmakers from the chamber decided to join LDP’s parliamentary caucus.

Calling a snap election could be a double-edged sword for Takaichi.

The prime minister has said she wants the public to “feel the effects” of her government’s economic policies and measures to combat high prices “as soon as possible.” But a snap poll, regardless of the date, would give parliament less time to pass the fiscal 2026 budget before April — something that could potentially upend both interparty backing and public support for the Takaichi administration.

Japanese voters have repeatedly said in surveys that high prices are their top concern, a view reflected in Tuesday’s NHK survey, which found that 45% put a premium on prioritizing measures to combat inflation.

In this department, Takaichi has little to spotlight to voters beyond a ¥21.3 trillion ($136 billion) stimulus package announced in November. A big win in the Lower House, however, would create a more stable government, giving her a solid mandate and allowing her administration to more easily pass legislation.

Meanwhile, Takaichi has already succeeded in diverting public and media attention away from Japan’s strained relationship with China following the prime minister’s November remarks in parliament that Tokyo could intervene militarily in a Taiwan crisis.

Beijing has responded with a series of economic moves, including urging travelers not to visit Japan, reimplementing a de facto ban on the import of Japanese marine products and stronger export restrictions on dual-use products, including rare-earth minerals crucial to Japan’s economy.

But if Takaichi can win a fresh mandate from voters in a snap poll, observers say China will most likely reevaluate its view of her as a short-term leader, potentially forcing Beijing to soften its hard-line approach and reopen channels of communication.

JapanTimes