The Nigerian Economic Summit Group, NESG, has urged policymakers to deepen reforms, strengthen institutions anNESGd sustain macroeconomic discipline to convert recent stabilisation gains into durable, inclusive growth from 2026.
In a position paper presented by its Chief Economist, NESG, Dr Olusegun Omisakin, NESG in its Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2026 said Nigeria was no longer in an emergency phase, but in a consolidation period that required discipline, policy consistency and strategic focus to avoid a reversal of gains.
The theme of the presentation is “Consolidating Economic Stabilisation Gains: Pathway to Sustainable Growth in Nigeria.”
Omisakin, also the Director of Research and Development, said that the country now had an opportunity to optimise the gains recorded from recent economic reforms.
“We are happy because we are no longer in a state of crisis. The present situation gives us the opportunity to study how to optimise the gains so far and use them as a launchpad to achieve our long-term economic goals,” he said.
Omisakin explained that while the country experienced severe macroeconomic instability between 2023 and 2024, policy measures implemented during that period began to yield results in 2025.
He said this was particularly in inflation management, foreign reserve accretion and improved productive capacity.
According to him, although progress had been recorded, Nigeria was not yet completely out of macroeconomic instability, emphasising that consolidation does not imply the absence of risks.
“We have registered gains in productive capacity, inflation control, foreign reserves and our ability to manage volatility.
“These gains are worth celebrating, but the bigger question is how we sustain and build on them,” Omisakin said.
He described 2026 as a strategic year for government, policymakers and the private sector even as he noted that the country must address key gaps to fast-track growth between 2026 and 2030.
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One of such gaps, he said, was the growth deficit, as Nigeria’s real GDP growth of about 3.8 per cent remained below the 5 to 5.6 per cent required to significantly lift economic outcomes.
Omisakin also highlighted structural weaknesses in the economy.
He said that manufacturing and agriculture sectors were still underperforming relative to their potential, while warning of the risk of policy reversal ahead of the 2027 political transition.
Drawing lessons from countries such as Ghana and Brazil, he warned that many economies relapsed after initial stabilisation due to reform fatigue and weak institutional consolidation.
“We have identified a critical 18-month window after stabilisation reforms. If we are distracted by the gains and fail to deepen reforms, we risk reversing the progress we have made,” he said.
Omisakin outlined four pillars for economic consolidation: improved macroeconomic outcomes, structural transformation, institutional deepening, and social protection with job creation.
On macroeconomic outcomes, he said Nigeria must target single-digit inflation and build foreign reserves above $50 billion to signal strong economic stability, while sustaining positive real interest rates.
He emphasised the need for structural transformation, particularly through agriculture, manufacturing and export diversification, to drive inclusive growth, job creation and higher productivity.
He also underscored the importance of strengthening institutions, especially in revenue mobilisation and efficient public spending, noting that fiscal discipline would be key to sustaining consolidation.
On social protection, Omisakin said programmes must move beyond welfare to empowering citizens to participate productively in the economy.
He further emphasised the need for stronger coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities, sectoral rebalancing in favour of manufacturing and agriculture, and deeper private sector participation through credit expansion, fintech partnerships and risk-sharing mechanisms.
According to him, effective consolidation could enable the manufacturing sector to grow by between six and eight per cent, while agriculture could contribute more significantly to GDP growth.
Omisakin identified major risks to consolidation as policy inconsistency, sectoral constraints such as insecurity, external shocks from global economic volatility, and capacity gaps in tax administration and public institutions.
He said the NESG’s macroeconomic projection for 2026 was anchored on consolidation, with an expected GDP growth of 5.5 per cent, inflation of about six per cent, and foreign reserves rising to 52 billion dollars.
“This projection is driven by the urgency of consolidation. If we achieve our 2026 targets, it becomes easier to build momentum for 2027, 2028 and 2029,” he said.
Omisakin called on government to implement the consolidation agenda with discipline and transparency.
He also urged the private sector to partner with and hold government accountable for reforms and appealed to international partners to sustain technical and financial support to Nigeria’s reform efforts.
NAN
