The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof. Joseph Utsev, says no fewer than 33 states and the FCT will experience flooding in 2026, with 14,118 communities identified as high-risk nationwide.
Utsev disclosed this in Abuja on Wednesday at the public presentation of the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook, AFO, by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency, NIHSA. He said the high-risk communities were located in 266 Local Government Areas, LGAs, based on scientific forecasts and hydrological assessments.
The affected states according to him are Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna and Kano.
Others include Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara, including the FCT.
The minister said that 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states would face moderate flood risk, while Ekiti remained the only state not affected. He added that 923 communities in 77 LGAs across 24 states fell within the low flood risk category.
” States in this category include Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba and Zamfara,” he said.
He warned of possible flash and urban flooding in major cities, including Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Ibadan and Kano.
He said coastal and riverine flooding is expected in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers and Ondo due to rising sea levels and tidal surges.
” The AFO is not just a scientific report; it is a call to action. Early warning saves lives and reduces economic losses,” he emphasised.
Utsev attributed increasing flood incidents to climate variability, rapid urbanisation, inadequate drainage infrastructure and poor land-use practices.
He revealed that the Federal Government was strengthening hydrological monitoring through improved data systems, automated river gauges and advanced modelling techniques.
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He added that collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, and the National Emergency Management Agency, NEMA, were being enhanced to improve forecast accuracy and early warning dissemination.
The minister urged state governments to integrate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development and infrastructure design.
He also called for improved drainage systems, effective floodplain management and stronger community preparedness to minimize impacts.
Earlier, President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, said flooding remained a major national challenge, with recurring incidents recorded since 2012.
Tinubu said his administration had initiated policies and programmes, including flood control projects, to address the persistent threat.
He said that the 2024 Maiduguri flood marked a turning point toward proactive flood and disaster management.
According to him, the Anticipatory Action initiative, led by the Office of the Vice-President, is strengthening early warning, preparedness and coordinated response.
Tinubu described the AFO as a key planning document guiding early action, mitigation and evacuation strategies nationwide.
He urged stakeholders to utilize the forecasts to protect lives, livelihoods and critical infrastructure.
The president also emphasized the need to harness water resources to drive economic diversification and sustainable development.
Also speaking, the Director-General of NIHSA, Umar Mohammed, said the forecast was based on comprehensive, data-driven analysis of flood-prone areas.
Mohammed said the AFO served as an early warning tool to support planning and coordinated disaster response nationwide. The agency had upgraded its forecasting system to a hybrid AI-integrated model to improve accuracy and lead time.
He also said that the Flood Dashboard now enabled real-time monitoring and dissemination of alerts to stakeholders. He urged residents in vulnerable areas to heed early warnings and adopt preventive measures to reduce risks.
The NIHSA director general called for wider dissemination of the outlook to strengthen preparedness and resilience in communities. He appreciated the Federal Government and development partners for their support in the preparation of the 2026 outlook.
The News Agency of Nigeria reports that goodwill messages were delivered by representatives of the World Meteorological Organisation, NiMet, NEMA, the Minister of Livestock Development, Dr Idi Maiha, and other stakeholders.
NAN
