Madagascar’s election body announced Thursday that a constitutional referendum will take place in June 2027, followed by elections that October.
The announcement came after fresh youth-led protests under the “Gen Z Madagascar” movement in early April, which demanded an election date amid rising discontent with the country’s military regime.
The Indian Ocean island made international headlines last October when an elite military unit seized power from President Andry Rajoelina following weeks of youth-led protests. (Rajoelina himself took power in a 2009 coup.) The demonstrations had initially begun in response to repeated power cuts and water shortages, but they escalated after security forces’ crackdown on protesters left at least 22 people dead.
While activists were glad to oust Rajoelina, many also feared what the military takeover would mean for the country’s future.
“Immediately after the military came to power, there were some visible short-term improvements. Power cuts became slightly less frequent, and some communities experienced longer access to running water,” said Velomahanina Razakamaharavo, a research fellow at the University of Reading and author of Peacebuilding in Madagascar: A Multi-Levelled Peace.
“However, these improvements have not translated into sustainable solutions,” Razakamaharavo added.
The junta’s elections announcement may be a cause for hope, but it “cannot yet be considered a clear sign of positive change in Madagascar’s civic space,” Razakamaharavo said. The military government, led by Col. Michael Randrianirina, is fulfilling the two-year transition timeline agreed with the Southern African Development Community to restore democratic governance, she explained, “rather than [showing] evidence of genuine democratic opening.”
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As I suspected in October, the military may simply be following the new African coup playbook used by military leaders in Mali, Chad, Guinea, and Gabon: promising institutional reforms and a national referendum to establish a new constitution, which further entrenches their power over the legislature, followed by “tick-box” elections to legitimize that power grab.
Meanwhile, the crackdown on dissent has continued under military rule. As the military prepares for elections, “we’ve had arbitrary searches, arrests, detentions targeting the opposition (people from the former political regime that was deposed),” said Nciko wa Nciko, Amnesty International’s lead advisor on human rights in Madagascar.
According to Amnesty International, several protesters, including prominent Gen Z activist Herizo Andriamanantena, were detained on “vague charges” of criminal conspiracy and national security threats on April 12, shortly after taking part in protests in the capital of Antananarivo.
Other young people were arrested in late April alongside a Malagasy army officer and former French service member on charges of an alleged plot to destabilize the country and spreading false information. The French foreign ministry denied the accusations.
Despite the appointment of an anti-corruption chief as prime minister by the military in March, young activists say the space for political freedom is shrinking in the country. “It’s just a new face but the same mafia, the same oligarchs,” Malagasy activist Arimamy Todisoa told CBC Radio last month.
Meanwhile, the military government does not appear to be prioritizing everyday citizens’ needs in a country where three-quarters of the population lives in poverty. “Today, access to water remains one of the population’s biggest daily struggles. Many residents report going up to four days without running water. In some areas, people wake up as early as 2 a.m. to queue for water,” Razakamaharavo said.
As Nciko explained, government policies have largely focused on acquiring weapons rather than addressing water and electricity shortages. Last month, Randrianirina’s administration received arms and military equipment from Moscow, following talks between Randrianirina and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Bloomberg reported.
Nciko, for one, argues that the international community should not lose sight of the root cause of the Malagasy protests, which was corruption and the mismanagement of public funds. Gen Z activists are “saying still there’s degradation of public services. There are still water problems, electricity problems,” he said. “That’s where the demands of Gen Z are.”
