By Segun Adeleye
To ask whether Bola Tinubu has lived up to expectations since he stepped into office as Nigeria’s President three years ago will definitely attract mixed reactions.
Having started with a series titled “If I were Tinubu” before the president took the oath of office in 2023, which culminated in my book ‘Tinubu: Audacity to Hope’, foreworded by the Afenifere leader, Pa Reuben Fasoranti, one perspective through which I can review his third year is to reflect on questions that can also serve as warnings, for our country not to allow ‘stomach infrastructure’ dictate to the conscience and the purpose that has been denied, challenged, and continues to be resisted by some known and unknown internal and global forces.
TIME AND PURPOSE
The cycle of life teaches us to appreciate every stage of our journey. Life is constantly changing, with every experience, whether joyful or painful, contributing to who we are.
We can’t seem to get away from the culture that keeps the name of the current ruler on our lips as the architect of our misfortunes. Can this be traced to the history of dashed hopes and lack of opportunities?
There is time and season for every purpose in life. A few years ago, Buhari was like the most hated name that many Nigerian could ever wished for. We had similar experience with those before him like Obasanjo, Yar’Adua and Abacha. In fact, when the news of Abacha death broke out on June 8, 1998, there was jubilation across the country with a sense of relief that nothing as worse could ever befall the country again. It will be interesting to see the result we will get if we should tabulate a question that, which of the past administrations had brought most severe pain and anguish on the people? It has always been a case of lamenting with our current pains that our yesterday was better.
While social media has amplified the capacity of people to criticize their leaders more than at any other time in history, the Tinubu era has witnessed a dangerous dimension with a reported coup plot against his government in January this year. The alleged plot involved a clandestine network of military officers, with an Army Colonel identified as the coordinator. Six former security officials were later charged with treason, terrorism, and terrorism financing in April 2026.
The first question to reflect on in this piece is: what are the things critics say President Tinubu should have done in his three years in power? The areas where they believe he has fallen short include inadequate social intervention programs, with the argument that palliatives aren’t enough to address poverty and food insecurity. There was criticism of the lack of meaningful relief for citizens, with many Nigerians still struggling with rising food prices, inflation, and declining purchasing power despite economic reforms.
While criticism about insufficient job creation and security measures has been strong, one of the opposition parties claimed that worsening inflation and rising food prices have made daily life increasingly difficult for citizens, while the government failed to address job creation, electricity supply, and security concerns.
The government’s responses to criticisms have been varied but mostly draw attention to several reforms and initiatives in the country. Some notable achievements it showcased include:Removing fuel subsidies and unifying FX windows; Improving tax administration, digital revenue systems, and expanding the non-oil tax base; Increasing the tax-to-GDP ratio and easing debt-service pressure; Infrastructure development with projects like the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Abuja-Kaduna Road reconstruction, Kaduna-Birnin Gwari Road revival, and the Bonny-Bodo Road; Energy independence with Nigeria transitioning from being Africa’s largest petrol importer to West Africa’s largest exporter within two years; Improved security funding that supported efforts to combat oil theft, with incidents dropping to a 16-year low; and Student loan scheme to support indigent students in government tertiary institutions.
No doubt, President Tinubu’s economic reforms have had mixed impacts. On the positive side, they’ve strengthened economic stability and investor confidence, with foreign exchange reserves hitting $50 billion, the highest in 17 years.
The reforms have also improved macroeconomic management, rebuilt buffers, and attracted portfolio inflows while reducing risk premiums. However, despite these gains, poverty and food insecurity still persist, with 63% of Nigerians said to be living in poverty and millions facing food insecurity. Inflation remains a challenge, easing slightly to 15.91% in June 2026 from 15.93% in May.
The reforms have also contributed to social strain, with many businesses, especially MSMEs, struggling with operational challenges, increased production costs, and declining consumer purchasing power.
While the government has acknowledged these challenges, insisting that the reforms were necessary for long-term growth and stability, it has not provided a specific time-frame for when relief will start easing the pains. Critics of the infrastructure projects have raised questions like ‘Is it road that we go chop?’
Many have suggested alternative approaches to the reforms, including gradual subsidy phase-out, implementation of more targeted social safety nets, prioritizing economic diversification, and exploring debt restructuring options.
These alternatives seem like work in progress, with differences in implementation timelines and challenges
THE ENEMIES WITHIN AND WITHOUT
While rationalizing the questions of what has been done and what ought to have been done, my take is that it’s important not to forget Nigeria’s peculiarity, which seems to have stemmed from the defect in its creation in 1914, ignoring ethnic and cultural differences. This artificial union has contributed to post-independence governance challenges and regional tensions.
The theory of conspiracies against Nigeria becoming a global economic powerhouse cannot be ignored. The neo-colonialism theory, which suggests that external forces, including former colonial powers and international financial institutions, are working to maintain Nigeria’s dependence and exploit its resources, is also relevant.
The failure of past leaders to understand the hypocrisy in the global order, which encouraged them to prioritize power and external validation over development, perpetuating inequality and poverty, is the bane of the country.
Past leaders can be remembered for their wonderful campaign promises until they gained power, only to realize the depth of the problems and the complexity of achieving results in one or two terms. They then succumbed to self-preservation at all costs, including running the government on overdrafts and paying workers with loans, as witnessed during the Buhari regime. The locust years of military rule cannot be forgotten.
The leader who will transform Nigeria must understand that the problems confronting the country are not ordinary. A prosperous Nigeria will be a victory for the most oppressed people on earth and a loss to those who want it to remain dependent. That leader must be fearless and ready to give everything.
LIKE TINUBU, LIKE KING DAVID
President Tinubu seems to have cut the picture of someone who can go far if he remains stubbornly focused on what matters. It’s interesting that he described himself as a “very stubborn politician” who won’t be swayed by criticism or insecurity challenges. Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, recently compared him to the late Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. He may be right. But behind this posture should be concerns about how really tough and how far Tinubu can go? How irreversible are his reforms? After all, only one who stands firm to the end can be counted as victorious.
Tinubu is a peculiar Nigerian, toughened through exposure to different ways of living at home and abroad in search of a purpose, and the journey has thrown him opportunities and challenges. He is street and politics smart. His journey shares similarities with that of King David of old Israel. Despite all past mistakes that should have ruled him out of leadership, he made it. That is mercy. Despite all opposition to his candidacy, including from his ruling party, he made it. That is grace.
Like King David, if mercy and grace can bring Tinubu this far, then lessons from history show that he can do anything he sets his mind to. Removing fuel subsidies, unifying the naira, enacting sustainable tax laws, ending financial hemorrhaging through NNPC, simultaneously building superhighways across the country, appointing professionals including young women to head strategic government institutions that were once reserved for aristocrats, and contemplating state police are unprecedented, which leaders before him could not dabble into.
Tinubu is enjoying such mercy and grace that some could argue he is not qualified for, nor worked for. He can face and tell anyone in his party that no one made him. He can dare greater things and survive them. It’s one chance. But he must understand that they will not last forever. They lasted throughout David’s life, but his son who ruled after him, King Solomon, squandered them.
King David’s story showed how he received grace and favor despite his enemies’ plans. In one of his writings, he said God made his enemies become his allies. “You prepare a table before me in the presence of my enemies”. It’s interesting to say that grace has also turned Tinubu’s enemies into his allies, given the defections of governors from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). With almost all governors crossing to the ruling party, his re-election bid is in overdrive.
A PRAYER FOR THE LAND
Besides politics, for the sake of Nigeria, the country, irrespective of the leadership, will need all the support and prayers of it to succeed. History has shown us how Africans with strong convictions for change were cut down at their prime. We have examples like Thomas Sankara, Muritala Mohammed, MKO Abiola, Patrice Lumumba, Samora Machel, and Chris Hani, who died in the process of trying to make a change. Citizens should pray for the peace of the land so that it will be well with them.
In the world today, there are countries that seem to have no soul, no conscience, and no God. They are in perpetual crises, fighting wars that have deferred solutions. People are dying every day, while innocent souls are perishing with every attack. Even the United States, looked up to as an advanced democracy, along with Israel, is at war with Iran, with leaders who seem to have run out of ideas on how to end bloodshed.
Nigeria once had its own taste of violence following the massacres and attacks on Igbos, particularly in the north in 1966, which led to the Civil War. Up till now, many Igbos have not summoned the courage to forgive the country, as cries of injustice and marginalization continue to divide the country.
To move forward and end the cycle of hatred, people need to reflect on the wisdom that humans and perpetrators of violence are always products and victims of society, either through ignorance or diverse factors. The simple challenge for those still harboring perceptual anger and grievance is the ageless riddle that those without sin should cast the first stone.
Now, this is the one chance. Tinubu is not young. He has been favored by the country and God. He has tasted the ugly, bad, and good parts of the land. He can resolve and declare that if he perishes, he perishes. This is the one opportunity for him to change the world.
*Segun Adeleye is a media-entrepreneur, the President/CEO World Stage Limited (WorldStage) and author of books including “Tinubu the Audacity to Hope.
