Houthi forces in Yemen are making a concerted drive to take over the country’s Red Sea coast fully, claiming control of the key port of Mocha in the most serious wave of fighting with the Saudi-backed government in years, bringing the Iran-aligned group closer to full control of a key shipping route.
Seizure of the coast and some of the islands in the sea would be a strategic disaster for Saudi Arabia and the US, taking Iran and its proxies closer to full control of two choke points for western shipping on opposite sides of the Arabian Peninsula: the Bab al-Mandab at the southern end of the Red Sea and the strait of Hormuz in the Gulf.
Observers have said a reduction in hostilities – the most intense since the UN-sponsored ceasefire of April 2022 put an end to major military exchanges – now seems unlikely in what is seen as an attempt by the Houthis to open a second front in the Iran-US war, alongside the battle for control of Hormuz.
Baraa Shiban, the Royal United Services Institute’s (Rusi) Yemen specialist, a London-based security thinktank, said the situation in the country was spiralling out of control, adding that the UN-recognised Yemeni government was opening new fronts against the Houthis in the hope of putting more pressure on their forces than they could withstand.
But in the past 48 hours the Houthis had major advances south, down Yemen’s west coast, taking them closer to the high ground overlooking the narrow Bab al-Mandab strait.
A screen grab from video footage released by Saudi-backed forces shows a rocket being fired during fighting west of the city of Taiz.
The fighting has also raised questions about whether Saudi Arabia, which on Thursday launched as many as 40 airstrikes on Houthi targets, will activate the Mecca defence agreement and ask its co-signatories, Pakistan and Turkey, to send forces. The pact is designed to be defensive in nature and believed unlikely to apply to Saudi military activities in Yemen.
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By taking control of more of the Red Sea coast south of the port of Hodeidah, the Houthis’ aim is to use a new lever to put pressure on Saudi Arabia and the US to agree a deal that lifts the US blockade on Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf. Donald Trump on Wednesday acknowledged he did not expect the war with Iran to end before the US midterm elections at the start of November.
The latest phase in the escalation began when Houthis attacked energy installations and southern cities in Saudi Arabia using drones and ballistic missiles. In response, the kingdom’s military forces launched at least 15 strikes between 3 and 7 September.
The conflict data monitor Acled estimated there were 276 fatalities over the five-day period alone. The fighting has continued, with the Houthis claiming control of Mocha in Taiz province, as well as the inland city of Hays and the Khalid ibn al-Walid camp, the largest military base in the region. One Houthi-linked estimate suggested its forces had gained control of more than 2,320 sq miles (6,000 sq km) of land.
The commander of the Yemeni government forces, Maj Gen Tareq Saleh, admitted he had organised a strategic retreat south of Mocha in order to regroup in a secure location. “The armed forces in the western coast paid a heavy price – martyrs and wounded – over the past days as they confronted the Houthi attack planned by Iran, and supported by it,” he said. Analysts claimed that the effectiveness of Yemen’s government forces was weakened by internal divisions, as well as external pressure from Saudi Arabia.
The latter, meanwhile, continues to take advantage of its air superiority to attack Houthi positions, though government sources acknowledged Houthi ground advances along the coast and their missile strikes on the strategic Red Sea islands of Zuqar and Hanish.
The clashes have raged across Yemen, including Ad Dali, al-Bayda, Marib, Shabwah, al-Jawf, Hodeidah, and Taiz. In the initial days of the renewed conflict the Houthis were forced back in some areas as battles on multiple fronts overstretched their resources and fighter numbers.
The Houthis will be hoping political divisions inside the Yemeni government, reflected in a lack of an integrated military, will slowly give them the upper hand. The United Arab Emirates, previously a powerful player in southern Yemen where it backed the separatist forces of the Southern Transitional Council, withdrew its financial and military support at the turn of the year. The southern forces have refused to fight outside their own region.
“A reduction in hostilities anytime soon seems unlikely, as both sides continue to escalate with the goal of inflicting enough damage to the other side to force a compromise,” said Sherwan Hindreen Ali, a Yemen analyst for Acled. “In terms of military capability, both sides are more equal compared to the immediate period prior to the 2022 ceasefire when the Houthis had the upper hand.”
He added: “Fighting will remain focused on the fronts of the Red Sea coast in Hodeidah and Taiz, where both the Houthis and the Saudi Arabia-Yemen government have a vested interest in claiming the whole territory to deprive the other side of effective control of the strait of Bab al-Mandab.”
The head of the Houthis’ national delegating negotiating team, Muhammad Abdul Salam, insisted non-Saudi commercial shipping would not be attacked.
The fighting has contributed to the price of oil rising above $100 a barrel after weeks when it was trading closer to $80.
The escalation to this week’s all-out violence has been a slow process. It began after a senior delegation of the Houthi group, which has long been in a complex alliance with Iran, flew to Tehran for the funeral of the Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in July, returning in an Iranian plane that the Saudis refused to land in rebel-controlled Sana’a.
The Saudis instead bombed the runway, leading the Houthis to announce a Red Sea naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in what the Yemeni group described as a blockade for a blockade. The 20 July announcement of the blockade was followed by a strike on Saudi Arabia’s Jazan refinery on 25 July and on a tanker off Yanbu on 24 August.
Saudi Arabia has become reliant on the Red Sea route for trade after Iran throttled shipping through the strait of Hormuz as a result of US-Israeli attacks.
Al Jazeera
