President Bola Tinubu used his 66th Independence Day broadcast on Thursday to declare that the “age of reform has done its work” and that a new “age of prosperity” has begun. But official and independent data suggest the speech rests on economy-wide gains that most Nigerians have yet to feel.
Nevertheless, as usual, Nigerians are hopeful.
Tinubu compared the country to a cancer patient. He said earlier leaders had chosen “morphine,” meaning subsidies and a distorted exchange rate, while his administration chose treatment. “Our reforms did not create the weaknesses in our economy. They confronted them,” he said. He warned against “regressive voices” who want a return to “addictive subsidies.”
Many of his headline figures hold up. The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, reported growth of 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, up from 3.89 per cent in the first. Both the oil and non-oil sectors expanded. Central Bank data show external reserves reached $54.08 billion in early September, the highest since 2008. The naira strengthened to about N1,315 to the dollar. The Nigerian Export Promotion Council recorded a record $6.1 billion in non-oil exports in 2025.
Inflation has also fallen, to 15.39 per cent in August from 34.80 per cent in December 2024. Part of that drop, however, comes from the NBS changing how it calculates the consumer price index in early 2025. Food inflation remains high at 19.57 per cent.
The President’s claim that foreign direct investment “continues to rise each year” is weaker. Nigeria attracted $10.37 billion in foreign capital in the first quarter of 2026, but only $135 million of it, or 1.3 per cent, was direct investment. Most was short-term portfolio money, which the World Bank has flagged as a weak point.
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Tinubu acknowledged that millions still struggle with food, school fees and transport costs. He said their hardship did not begin with his reforms. World Bank documents give a more complicated picture: poverty rose from about 40 per cent of the population in 2019 to 61 per cent in 2025, leaving roughly 139 million people below the national poverty line. The Bank described social protection efforts as “slow and uneven.” Only 8.5 per cent of poor Nigerians are covered by any safety net.
The speech’s plan focuses on lowering the cost of living by cutting the cost of producing and transporting goods. It promises more irrigation and dry-season farming, better access to seeds and fertiliser, and finished roads, railways and ports. Farm groups welcomed the promise but asked for follow-through. Farmer and analyst Omotunde Banjoko said lower costs were “what we have been clamouring for.” He called for mechanisation equipment at subsidised rates.
The address gave no targets, timelines or costs. It also said little about insecurity, even though Amnesty International recorded more than 1,100 abductions in northern Nigeria over three months this year. Jobs are central to the “prosperity” agenda, but they are hard to track. The NBS has not published labour force data since November 2024.
Opposition figures responded quickly. Former minister Solomon Dalung, a chieftain of the African Democratic Congress called the speech “rhetorical, wishful, ambitious, but very, very disappointing and empty.” He asked: “How does that 4% affect the cost of transportation and the purchasing power of Nigerians?” Another ADC chieftain, Dele Momodu, said the speech had turned a day of celebration “into a day of lamentation.”
The broadcast signals a political shift ahead of the 2027 elections. By declaring that “the emergency treatment is over,” Tinubu has changed the test from stabilising the economy to improving living standards. That test will be judged on food prices and transport fares, not on the size of the reserves.
Crediblenewsng.com
