Gaza ceasefire extension crumbles as hostilities resume

The precarious ceasefire negotiations in Qatar met a disheartening halt after a minimal 24-hour extension. The fleeting pause ended as Friday morning unfolded, heralding the resumption of hostilities.

Reports of explosions and gunfire erupted in the northern Gaza Strip, signaling the renewal of conflict as the Israeli military accused Hamas of breaching the truce by firing into Israeli territory.

This resurgence of violence stems from the persistent military advocacy for continuous warfare. The Israeli military’s steadfast stance reflects their mindset — unless explicitly informed that the conflict is concluded, they operate under the assumption that it persists. This philosophy prefers swift, uninterrupted action to decisively conclude the conflict without wavering morale or uncertainty.

Throughout this crisis, Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has been a fervent proponent of a robust military approach. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while maintaining a hawkish demeanor, has entrusted the military reins to Gallant, a former career soldier known for his candid and resolute disposition. Gallant’s uncompromising rhetoric, previously warning Hezbollah of potential devastation and vilifying Israel’s adversaries, underscores the military’s overall sentiment.

Gallant’s recent remarks to officers and soldiers on the imminent resumption of fighting further highlight the uncompromising stance — a clear indication that the truce’s extension was but a brief respite. His assertive stance, often aligned with the Israeli cabinet’s policy, contrasts sharply with Netanyahu’s embattled political maneuvering for survival.

While Gallant’s primary focus is the military’s efficacy in swiftly ending the conflict, Netanyahu faces mounting scrutiny over his handling of the crisis. The Israeli leader’s political gambits and controversial reforms, juxtaposed against the nation’s security setbacks, have led to growing discontent among his former allies. The prevailing sentiment indicates that Netanyahu’s political tenure may see an end once the conflict concludes.

Gallant, as a top-ranking member of the Likud party, which leads the current coalition, must be aware that after Netanyahu’s political demise, the party will require a new leader. Former officers are often favored by Israelis, especially if they have a track record of success, so he might want to get in front of that race as soon as possible.

Although he was not personally involved in the negotiations, as a member of the decision-makers’ inner circle, he was well aware of the difficulties in negotiating additional time off from fighting.

On Monday, the defence minister seemed so certain that the cease-fire would be broken soon that he even described how it would happen: “They will first meet the bombs of the air force, and then the shells of the tanks and artillery, and the paws of the D9 [armoured bulldozers], and finally the shooting of the infantry fighters.”

He also announced a new phase of fighting, declaring that Israel would fight “in the entire Strip.”

Extending the ground invasion south of Gaza City’s current encirclement would be a dangerous escalation. At least 1.8 million of Gaza’s 2.3 million people have been displaced by Israeli bombing, with the majority of them fleeing to the south.

This means that the south is now so crowded that an all-out ground assault from Israel could force the people of Gaza to try to force their way across the border fence into Egypt.

Egypt has warned that it will not accept any refugees since the conflict began, citing political instability and security concerns. If faced with that reality, it may find itself in the worst-case scenario of having to use force.

Such an intensification would almost certainly draw many armed groups and states into the conflict that had previously shown patience, hoping for a rational way out.

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