Nosmot Gbadamosi/ AFRICA BRIEF
Satellite imagery shows that Egypt has built a walled enclosure and cleared more than 6 square miles of land in its North Sinai province, following Israel’s announcement of a planned ground offensive into Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said an invasion of Rafah, which shelters about 1.4 million Palestinians, was necessary to root out Hamas fighters based there. Netanyahu said Sunday that a full-scale offensive into Rafah would proceed regardless of the outcome of cease-fire talks.
The latest satellite imagery, released by Maxar Technologies, appears to show ongoing construction along Egypt’s border with Gaza. Another report by the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights suggests an enclosure with 23-foot-high cement walls—starting from the village of Goz Abu Waad, south of Rafah, and heading north up to the Mediterranean coast—has been erected along the Rafah border. The Wall Street Journal, quoting unnamed Egyptian officials, estimated the gated area alone could house more than 100,000 people.
Egypt has consistently said opening its border, the only exit for Palestinian refugees that is not controlled by Israel, was a red line. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry denied media reports that the walled enclosure was to house Palestinian refugees.
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“We have constantly been dealing with maintenance on our border, so I think it is jumping to conclusions to what those activities constitute,” Shoukry said this month. Despite its very public opposition, Egypt appears to be safeguarding itself against the consequences of a possible escalation of Israel’s ground offensive into Rafah. Egyptian officials know that this would inevitably force hundreds of thousands of Palestinians across the border into Sinai.
“It is not our intention to provide any safe areas or facilities, but necessarily, if this was the situation, we would deal with the humanity that is necessary and we would provide the support to the innocent civilians if that was to take place,” Shoukry added. “This should not be construed as acceptance for an eventuality of this nature.”
Camp David at risk? In recent weeks, unnamed Egyptian diplomats have been quoted saying Egypt could revoke its 1979 peace treaty with Israel over an Israeli expansion into Rafah.
Two Western diplomats and an Israeli official told the New York Times that Egypt had warned it would suspend the treaty if Israel forced Gaza residents into Sinai.
Michael Wahid Hanna, the U.S. program director at the International Crisis Group, told Foreign Policy that it was “almost impossible” to imagine Cairo pulling out of the treaty itself, given that Egypt benefits significantly from it. The agreement has ushered extensive aid from Washington to Cairo and intelligence sharing on fighting terrorism in Sinai. Israeli gas exports to Egypt increased by about 25 percent last year. Shoukry reaffirmed Cairo’s commitment to upholding the treaty.
“Egypt is not in a position to take those kinds of risks,” Hanna said. “There is a reason that Egypt entered into a peace treaty to begin with. The conflict with Israel was ruinous for Egypt,” he added, referring to repeated wars before the Camp David Accords were signed.
Hanna suggests that Egypt could take lesser steps, such as recalling its ambassador to Israel or downgrading its security ties.
Hamas-Brotherhood ties. It’s clear that Egyptian officials are concerned about policing insecurity at home if escaped Hamas fighters launch attacks against Israel from Egyptian soil. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said last October that the country “would become a base for attacks on Israel. Israel would have the right to defend itself … and would strike Egyptian territory.”
Hamas was founded as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Egypt fought for years to eradicate. Cairo had forcibly evicted its own residents and demolished thousands of houses in the Sinai Peninsula in order to fight local affiliates of the Islamic State. Egypt also destroyed Hamas tunnels over concerns about weapons flow into Gaza.
Egypt fears an exodus of Palestinian refugees into northern Sinai, at a time when it has sought a $5 billion International Monetary Fund bailout. A fourth devaluation of the Egyptian pound is expected soon. The pound has been devalued by more than 70 percent since 2022 to an official bank rate of 30.9 to the U.S. dollar. Cairo worries that Israel might never let the Palestinians return, since previous Palestinian displacements into Arab states have been permanent.
A leaked Israeli Intelligence Ministry “concept paper” proposed moving the Gaza population into tent cities in Sinai and creating a “security zone” to prevent Palestinians from returning. Egypt already hosts around 9 million refugees from Africa and the Middle East.
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