Donald Trump is narrowly leading Kamala Harris among Arab Americans as the race for president of the United States enters the final stretch, a new poll suggests, the latest sign that the war in Gaza is costing Democrats support among voters with outsized influence in a key battleground state.
Trump leads Harris 45 percent to 43 percent among the key demographic with two weeks to go until voters choose the next US president, according to the Arab News/YouGov poll released on Monday.
The Republican candidate is also seen as more likely to successfully resolve the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading his Democratic rival 39 percent to 33 percent on the question, according to the poll.
Trump and Harris are tied at 38 percent on the question of who would be better for the Middle East “in general”.
Asked which issues were the biggest concern to the Arab-American community, 29 percent of respondents chose the Israel-Palestine conflict, ahead of 21 percent who picked the economy and the cost of living and 13 percent who chose racism and discrimination.
Despite the edge for Trump, the former president is also seen as more supportive of Israel’s current government than his Democratic rival by a six-point margin, according to the poll.
Most of the results, based on a sample of 500 Arab Americans, are within the margin of error of plus or minus 5.93 percent.
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The poll is the latest warning to Democrats that President Joe Biden’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza could be putting his vice president’s election hopes in jeopardy ahead of the November 5 vote.
In a poll released by the Arab American Institute earlier this month, Trump and Harris were virtually tied at 42 percent to 41 percent, respectively.
Harris’s level of support among Arab Americans in the poll was 18 points below where Biden’s was in 2020.
Arab-American voters are seen as potentially critical to Harris’s election prospects due to their high concentration in Michigan, one of seven swing states expected to decide the outcome of the vote.
The Midwestern state is home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans in North America and the first Arab-majority US city, Dearborn.
In September, the mayor of Michigan’s Hamtramck, the first US city with an all-Muslim government, endorsed Trump, describing the Republican as a “man of principles” and “the right choice”.
Biden won Michigan by about 150,000 votes in 2020, while Trump carried the state by only about 11,000 voters in 2016.
In a direct appeal to Muslim and Arab American voters on Monday, Trump took aim at Harris for campaigning with Republican former Congresswoman Liz Cheney, the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, in the battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“If Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will spend the next four decades going up in flames, and your kids will be going off to War, maybe even a Third World War, something that will never happen with President Donald J. Trump in charge,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
“For our Country’s sake, and for your kids, Vote Trump for PEACE!”
Despite his outreach to Muslims, Trump has cast himself as the most pro-Israel US leader in history and claimed that Israel will cease to exist if he is not reelected.
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