By Hilliard Eta
The echoes from Osun are louder than the immediate celebration of one political victory. They carry a message that every serious political actor, particularly those preparing for 2027, should pause to hear.
First, congratulations are due to Governor Ademola Adeleke on his victory, to Asiwaju Bola Oyebamiji for what was undoubtedly a gallant and competitive contest, to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for reinforcing confidence in its preparedness for the elections ahead, and, most importantly, to the people of Osun State for exercising their civic responsibility. INEC declared Adeleke the winner with 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815, with Adeleke winning 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas.
But beyond the congratulations, there is a much bigger political lesson buried beneath the Osun result.
To those in the opposition who are celebrating this outcome as evidence that the political tide has decisively turned against the governing party, I ask a simple question what exactly are we celebrating?
Midterm and off-cycle elections are often interpreted as some form of referendum on the political standing of an incumbent government. If we accept that principle and we should apply it consistently—then Osun should not merely be celebrated; it should be interrogated.
The question should not simply be, “Who won Osun?” The more important question is; “What does Osun actually tell us about the political mood of Nigeria?”
And here, an important political fact cannot be ignored.
Governor Ademola Adeleke has already made his position regarding President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and 2027 known. That political alignment matters when interpreting the meaning of the Osun result. It makes it intellectually difficult to portray the votes cast for Adeleke simply as votes against President Tinubu or as a direct rejection of the President’s 2027 political project.
Indeed, the outcome becomes even more interesting when considered alongside the performance of the emerging opposition platforms, particularly the ADC and NDC. If the Osun election is being interpreted as evidence of an expanding anti-APC wave, then the electoral performance of these platforms deserves equally serious examination.
This is not to diminish Governor Adeleke’s victory. Far from it. He won an important election and deserves to be congratulated. But a state governorship election is not automatically a national referendum. Governorship elections are shaped by local personalities, state-specific issues, political alliances, incumbency, grassroots structures and the peculiar political history of individual states.
Osun is Osun.
Nigeria is Nigeria.
That distinction is important.
If the opposition insists that Osun represents a referendum on the Federal Government, then Nigerians deserve a broader and more rigorous audit of the elections conducted since 2023.
Where has the opposition actually gained?
What measurable electoral progress have the opposition parties made since the 2023 presidential election?
How many governorship seats have they won? How many National Assembly seats have they added? What grassroots structures have they built? How many Nigerians beyond the traditional constituencies of their political leaders have they persuaded?
And, perhaps most importantly, if the ADC and NDC are now being presented as significant components of the emerging opposition movement, what have their electoral outcomes demonstrated so far?
These are not questions intended to diminish anyone’s victory. They are questions designed to force Nigerian politics beyond emotional interpretation and political celebration.
The opposition must be careful not to confuse the defeat of the APC in one state with the defeat of the APC nationally. Osun is politically significant, but Nigeria is considerably larger than Osun. A governorship victory is important, but it does not, by itself, establish a national political realignment.
There is another lesson here that deserves even greater attention.
The opposition needs an ecosystem.
It needs more than politicians who are dissatisfied with the ruling party coming together at the eve of an election. It needs a permanent political ecosystem capable of engaging Nigerians continuously not only when votes are required.
An ecosystem where policy is developed before campaigns begin. An ecosystem where young Nigerians are engaged beyond social media. An ecosystem where farmers, traders, workers, entrepreneurs, students, professionals and communities are listened to throughout the political cycle not only when their votes are needed.
It must be an ecosystem capable of answering difficult questions.
What is the opposition’s economic philosophy?
How will it address unemployment, insecurity, inflation, education, healthcare and infrastructure?
How will it finance its promises?
How will it strengthen institutions?
How will it unite a country as complex and diverse as Nigeria?
And ultimately, what exactly will it do differently?
Nigerians cannot be expected to choose an alternative government simply because they are dissatisfied with the incumbent. They must first be convinced that the alternative is organised, competent, coherent, credible and capable of governing.
That is the real lesson of Osun.
There is a profound difference between opposing a government and preparing to replace one.
The first requires criticism.
The second requires capacity.
The first requires dissatisfaction.
The second requires a credible alternative.
The first can be built around personalities.
The second must be built around institutions, ideas, structures and trust.
For the governing APC, Osun should equally be a moment for reflection. No political party, regardless of its national strength, should take any election for granted. Electoral victories must be continually renewed through engagement, performance, organisation and an understanding of the changing expectations of citizens.
For the opposition, however, the message may be even more profound.
Anger is not an ideology. A coalition is not a manifesto. And opposition is not the same thing as an alternative government.
If the opposition genuinely wants to win Nigeria in 2027, it must stop asking Nigerians merely to reject the APC and begin giving Nigerians compelling reasons to embrace something else.
It must build trust before it asks for votes.
It must build structures before it builds slogans.
It must develop policies before it develops campaign posters.
And it must engage Nigerians long before the ballot boxes arrive.
The Osun election should therefore not be treated as the final verdict on 2027. Neither should it be dismissed as insignificant. It is a political signal, and every serious political actor should study it carefully.
The APC must learn from Osun.
The opposition must learn from Osun.
INEC must learn from Osun.
And Nigerians must learn from Osun.
For ultimately, elections are not won simply by declaring that one side has failed. They are won by convincing the electorate that another side is ready, capable and worthy of their trust.
So, to those rejoicing in the opposition camp, celebrate but also reflect.
If Osun is truly a referendum, then conduct the audit.
Examine the numbers.
Examine the structures.
Examine the victories and the defeats.
Examine the promises and the policies.
Examine the relationship between political leaders and ordinary Nigerians.
Then ask yourselves the most uncomfortable question of all;
If Nigerians are genuinely searching for an alternative in 2027, have you built an alternative worthy of their trust?
That is the real test.
Osun has spoken.
The question now is whether Nigeria is listening.
*HILLIARD ETA*
