Not only has Israel latest attack on Iran been more wide-ranging and intense than its two previous military operations last year, but it also appears to have adopted elements of the strategy used in the Israeli offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon last November.
That strategy aimed not only to hit Iran’s missile bases — thereby weakening its ability to respond — but also to eliminate key members of Iran’s leadership.
In Lebanon, that “decapitation strategy” targeting Hezbollah’s senior figures had devastating effects on the group’s ability to launch a sustainable counteroffensive. Now, Israel appears to be employing the same approach in Iran.
Footage from Tehran has shown what appear to be specific buildings hit — similar to images from Israel’s strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut, which led to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
While no figure of that prominence has been killed in Iran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not been targeted. Still, the killing of Hossein Salami, Iran’s military chief of staff and commander of the Revolutionary Guards, along with several nuclear scientists in the early stages of this operation, represents a historic blow to Iran’s elite ranks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted that the operation may continue for days. This escalation is expected to trigger a much fiercer response from Iran than its previous retaliatory efforts last year.
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However, this same level of damage may now also hinder Iran’s capacity to respond effectively. That is likely part of the calculation Netanyahu made in choosing this moment to act.
In a statement issued shortly after the strikes began, Netanyahu described the operation as essential for Israel’s survival. He has long argued that Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would pose an existential threat to Israel.
To underscore that urgency, a senior Israeli military official claimed that Iran had accumulated enough material to produce 15 nuclear bombs within days.
In addition to military and strategic factors, political timing may have played a role. Talks between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program were set to enter their sixth round on Sunday. With conflicting reports on progress, Netanyahu may have seen this as the final opportunity to derail what he views as a dangerous and unacceptable agreement.
Israeli military analysts may also believe that Iran and its regional proxies — especially Hezbollah — have been significantly weakened, reducing the threat they pose to Israel’s security.
The next few days will reveal whether this assessment proves to be a strategic success or a major miscalculation.
BBC
