Nigeria’s inflation rate fell to 18.02 per cent in September, down from 20.12 per cent in August 2025, marking the sixth straight month of decline.
The National Bureau of Statistics released the latest Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday, showing that inflation dropped below the 20 per cent threshold for the first time in three years.
The NBS attributed the drop partly to the rebasing of the CPI, which helped push inflation lower this year. The trend also prompted the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee to cut interest rates for the first time in years. Economists predict that the MPC may reduce the benchmark rate again soon if inflation continues to slow.
The NBS said inflation declined by 2.1 per cent month-on-month, while the year-on-year rate stood 14.68 percentage points lower than the 32.70 per cent recorded in September 2024.
On a month-to-month basis, the inflation rate stood at 0.72 per cent, slightly lower than 0.74 per cent in August. The NBS noted that prices rose more slowly in September compared to August.
Food inflation dropped sharply to 16.87 per cent in September from 37.77 per cent in the same period last year a difference of 20.9 percentage points. The NBS linked the steep decline to the new base year adjustment in its inflation measurement.
Month-on-month, food inflation fell by 1.57 per cent, down from 1.65 per cent in August. The report linked the decrease to falling prices of staples such as maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
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Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, stood at 19.53 per cent in September. This figure represents a 7.9 per cent decline from 27.43 per cent in September 2024. On a monthly basis, core inflation slightly decreased from 1.43 per cent in August to 1.42 per cent in September.
The average 12-month inflation rate stood at 22.39 per cent, 3.25 points lower than the 25.64 per cent recorded in September 2024.
Urban inflation rose slightly by 0.25 per cent to 0.74 per cent month-on-month, while rural inflation dipped to 18.26 per cent year-on-year and 0.67 per cent month-on-month.
Across states, Adamawa (23.69%), Katsina (23.53%), and Nasarawa (22.29%) recorded the highest inflation, while Anambra (9.28%), Niger (11.79%), and Bauchi (12.36%) had the lowest. On a monthly basis, Zamfara, Adamawa, and Nasarawa recorded the largest increases, while Niger, Oyo, and Bayelsa recorded declines.
For food inflation, Ekiti (28.68%), Rivers (24.18%), and Nasarawa (22.74%) led the list, while Bauchi (2.81%), Niger (8.38%), and Anambra (8.41%) saw the smallest increases. Month-to-month, food inflation rose fastest in Zamfara, Ekiti, and Sokoto, but dropped in Akwa Ibom, Borno, and Cross River.
Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, predicted that inflation would ease to 18.8 per cent due to “softer food prices and a stronger naira.” He noted that this trend could encourage the CBN to cut rates again in November to boost growth.
Analysts at Arthur Steven Asset Management also expect the MPC to lower rates further at its final meeting of the year, citing the continued disinflation trend following the 50 basis points cut in September.
In its Inflation Watch report, AIICO Capital said the drop in inflation reflects the benefits of recent government policy reforms. The firm explained that the rebased CPI, along with stable energy prices and a stronger naira which appreciated by 2.9 per cent in September, its best performance in 15 months contributed to the downward trend.
AIICO Capital added that if current conditions persist, the CBN may implement additional rate cuts before the year ends. However, it warned that maintaining stable prices will require consistent policies, stronger food security, and steady energy costs to prevent future inflation spikes.
